In a wide-ranging exclusive interview on Meet the Press, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed back on the idea that tariffs are driving up prices, insisting inflation is rising “because of the service economy” and has “nothing to do with tariffs,” even as the Trump administration rolls back duties on certain food products.
Bessent: ‘Very Optimistic’ About 2026 — No Recession Ahead
Bessent told host Kristen Welker that he does not expect a recession in 2026.
Asked directly if one was coming, he replied, “No. I am very, very optimistic on 2026.”
He explained that many Americans still haven’t updated their tax planning to reflect the major tax cuts included in this summer’s Republican spending bill. As a result, he expects big tax refunds in early 2026 — followed by higher take-home pay once workers adjust their payroll withholdings.
“We have set the table for a very strong non-inflationary growth economy,” Bessent said.
Big Refunds Coming, Bessent Predicts
“We are going to see substantial refunds to working families in the first quarter of 2026,” he told Welker. “Americans will change their withholding. And they will get an increase in real income.”
Treasury Secretary Says Costs Are Dropping Across the Board
Bessent pointed to what he sees as improving consumer conditions:
- falling interest rates
- a strong October for home sales
- lower energy and gasoline prices
- cheaper Thanksgiving turkeys
He also said healthcare costs were set to drop as well, adding that an announcement on that front would come this week.
